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Recommended Books:
: Elizabeth Stanley
. Sheryl Paul
, Arthur S. Rebner
The way I work is to study as many of the important cases of a particular thing I can find and then to form a picture of a typical one, which I call an archetype. The archetype helps me see the cause-effect relationships that drive how these cases typically progress. Then I compare how the specific cases transpire relative to the archetypical one to understand what causes the differences between each case and the archetype. This process helps me refine my understanding of the cause-effect relationships to the point where I can create decision-making rules in the form of “if/then” statements—i.e., if X happens, then make Y bet. Then I watch actual events transpire relative to that template and what we are expecting. I do these things in a very systematic way with my partners at Bridgewater Associates.[1a] If events are on track we continue to bet on what typically comes next, and if events start to deviate we try to understand why and course correct.
1) one’s ability to anticipate and deal well with the future depends on one’s understanding of the cause-effect relationships that make things change
2) one’s ability to understand these cause-effect relationships comes from studying how they have played out in the past.